marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
615 am PST Tue 18 Nov 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Update...

No significant changes will be made to this forecast package.

For the short term...the 06z GFS and NAM indicate as in their
previous runs that gales could be delayed until Wed night.
Models show 35 kt winds just W of the pz5 waters by 00z Thu so
it will be a close call. The latest GFS also shows gales
brushing the NW corner of the nrn CA waters Wed night into Thu.
If the 12z guidance supports these changes...will make
adjustments in the afternoon package.

The latest GFS and NAM runs continue to show a robust system
that will bring winds of at least gales force to the pz5 waters
late Thu into Fri. The GFS continues to show storm force winds
affecting the WA waters Fri...while the NAM shows winds of 40
kt. Will keep the forecast as is for now...and wait for 12z
guidance before possibly bumping winds higher.

In keeping with a solution weaker than the GFS for the system
mentioned above...will lower ww3 seas for late Thu into Fri.
Otherwise...ww3 looks reasonable.

Previous discussion follows
-------------------------------------

No sig differences in the 00z glbl models in the short term.
Models in pretty good agrmt with the timing of the gales for the
pz5 waters Wed into Thu in assoc with trof of low pres moving
across the region. Gales could be delayed until Wed night...but
will keep the timing as is for now. GFS close to bringing gales
into the nrn portion of the pz6 waters but will keep gales
limited to the pz5 waters attm.

For the late Thu/Fri time frame...00z glbl models have come into
more of an agrmt with GFS in terms of a fairly strong low moving
NW of the waters...with the assoc cold front moving thru the nrn
waters Fri. There still is some issues involving the track of
the low...but the consensus of the glbl models do have the low
tracking NW of the waters. Of note...the ECMWF which did not
have much of a low on the last run now has a 988 mb low moving
across the WA waters on Fri. For the next pacakge...will go
ahead and increase sly winds ahead of the front from 35 kt to 40
kt late Thu into Fri. Both the GFS and the Gem showing psbl 50
bl winds ahead of the front across the WA waters Fri. Think this
is a psblty but do want to wait for a few more model runs before
jumping on the storm force winds just yet. Postfrontal winds
quickly diminish to subgale levels.

Prefer the Gem/UKMET/ECMWF solution for sun...with winds
increasing from the S as a cold front approaches. GFS showing a
strong low just W of the WA waters by 12z sun with winds
approaching storm force in the pz5 waters. GFS only model attm
showing this soln and will be discounted for now.

Seas...ww3 looks reasonable across the cstl/offshr waters when
compared to ltst sfc obs. Will trend a bit lower in the seas
over the pz5 waters late Thu and Fri as am going a bit weaker
with the sly winds than GFS is indicating. Otw...will stay close
to the model for the remainder of the fcst.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale Wed into Thu...MDT confdc.
Gale late Thu into Fri...low to MDT confdc.
.Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale Wed into Thu...MDT
confdc. Gale Fri...low to MDT confdc.

.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...none.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...None.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster Bell/achorn. Ocean forecast branch.

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